# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · briefing 2026-04-24 · 17 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR24 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:25:07Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-24 · tn/th blank: no briefing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR24 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Pentagon Press Briefing on April 24th , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	10	8	0.8	nnYYYYYYYY	0.62	hist	no
Civilian	civilian	1	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.56	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	8	5	0.62	nnnYYYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	8	5	0.62	nnYYnYYY	0.52	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	8	5	0.62	YnYnYnYY	0.51	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	8	5	0.62	YnnYYYYn	0.45	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	7	3	0.43	nYnYnYn	0.37	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	9	3	0.33	nYnnYnnnY	0.35	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	8	3	0.38	YnYnnnYn	0.34	hist	no
Lethal	lethal	1	0	0			0.31	hist	yes
Pakistan	pakistan	1	1	0	0	n	0.29	hist	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	8	1	0.12	nnnnnYnn	0.2	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Maduro	maduro	1	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Phelan	phelan	1	0	0			0.38	prior	no
Uranium	uranium	1	0	0			0.38	prior	no