Kash Patel: Hearing, May 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Kash Patel say during the FBI budget hearing?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fentanyl | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 60%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secret Service | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surveillance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26MAY12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP