Will Kash Patel say “Surveillance”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kash Patel said “Surveillance” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 12, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 press briefing; Nov 12, 2025 – Sep 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kash Patel
Surveillance
- Probability
- 51% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Surveillance |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Surveillance | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 12, 2026 | Surveillance | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Kash Patel say “Surveillance”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kash Patel said “Surveillance” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 12, 2026 (33%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Kash Patel says “Surveillance” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kash Patel: ‘Surveillance’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kash-patel/words/surveillance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kash-patel&word=surveillance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kash-patel&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP