Will Kash Patel say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kash Patel said “Fraud” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 4, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 press briefing; Nov 12, 2025 – Sep 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kash Patel
Fraud
- Probability
- 67% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…administration has done since January to get rid of the waste, the fraud, the abuse and to reduce the size of our federal bureaucracy. We've…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Kash Patel say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kash Patel said “Fraud” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 4, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Kash Patel says “Fraud” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kash Patel: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kash-patel/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kash-patel&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kash-patel&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP