Will Kash Patel say “Trump” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kash Patel said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (40%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 press briefing; Nov 12, 2025 – Sep 19, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kash Patel
Trump (3+ times)
- Probability
- 47% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
…Karoline mentioned, we have some tremendous news, thanks to President Donald J. Trump once again, for the American people. As soon as the President of…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 12, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kash Patel say “Trump (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kash Patel said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (40%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Kash Patel says “Trump (3+ times)” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kash Patel: ‘Trump (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kash-patel/words/trump-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kash-patel&word=trump%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kash-patel&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP