Will Donald Trump say “Special Relationship”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Special Relationship” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 28, 2025.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Feb 27, 2025
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Special Relationship
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Very special relationships to this day, very, very special trade, the use of tariffs and the threat of tariffs and various other reasons depending on…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025 | Special Relationship |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Special Relationship”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Special Relationship” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 28, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Special Relationship” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Special Relationship’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/special-relationship (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=special%20relationship · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP