Donald Trump: Press conference, Feb 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the 5:10PM EST bilateral with Modi on Feb 13, 2025?
Polymarket What will Donald Trump say during his Thursday press conference?
Markets
24 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Genius | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelensky | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trade / Deficit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 5+ times | No | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| USAID 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Waste 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon 5+ times | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Cryptocurrency/Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DEI/Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| BJP / Bharatiya Janata | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| BRICS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| H-1B | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Harley / Davidson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hindu / Hinduism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nikhil / Gupta | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tibet / Kashmir | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vikash / Yadav | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency | No | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTCONF-25FEB13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP