# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-05-14 · 17 words · K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26MAY14 · as_of 2026-10-24T09:00:23Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-05-14 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26MAY14 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of California Governor Debate originally scheduled for May 14th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	2	2	1	YY	0.7	hist	yes
Trump (8+ times)	trump#8	8	1	1	1	Y	0.66	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	5	4	0.8	YYnYY	0.66	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	0.6	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.59	hist	no
Mental Health	mental health	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.59	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	0.54	hist	yes
Billionaire	billionaire	1	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	0.5	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence 	ai|artificial intelligence	1	13	5	0.38	nnYYnnYYnn	0.44	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Border	border	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Data Center	data center	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	2	0	0	nn	0.36	hist	yes
California Dream	california dream	1	0	0			0.56	prior	yes
Hospice	hospice	1	0	0			0.56	prior	yes
Newsom (3+ times)	newsom#3	3	0	0			0.56	prior	no
Refinery / Refine	refine|refinery	1	0	0			0.56	prior	yes