Will Scott Bessent say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 51% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you could provide a little more detail on what you're doing to shut down Iran's airlines. And also, on sanctions relief, a senior administration official…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP