What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Fed Chair” next time?

63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Scott Bessent say “Fed Chair”?

Name: Scott Bessent: “Fed Chair” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed Chair” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Last said: Oct 15, 2025
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 19:34 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Scott Bessent

Fed Chair

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 transcripts: said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Scott BessentspeakerSecretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Briefs Members of the Media, May 28, 2026 · May 28, 2026 · 13:10In transcript

…It's a new day at the Fed. The Treasury secretary and the Fed chair have lunch or breakfast every week. I had my first breakfast…

Scott BessentspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Scott Bessent, and Kelly Loeffler Brief Members of the Media · Apr 15, 2026 · 18:28In transcript

…we have laid out in terms of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed chair, he's going to have the hearing on the 21st of this…

What will Scott Bessent say during Meet the Press? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during RNC Midterm Convention? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during his press conference? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Faith & Freedom Coalition's Conference? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC: Squawk Box? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during his Committee on Ways & Means hearing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Treasury Budget Hearing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Reagan National Economic Forum? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the White House Press Briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Oct 16, 2025	Fed Chair	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does Scott Bessent say “Fed Chair”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed Chair” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 16, 2025.
What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Fed Chair” next time?: 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Fed Chair’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/fed-chair (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=fed%20chair · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP