Bernie Sanders: Rally, May 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Portland Maine rally?
Polymarket What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy Tour?
Markets
43 words · 27 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Yes | 85%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | Yes | 80%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 77%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 77%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | 77%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 76%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 76%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 73%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 73%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Vermont / Vermonter | Yes | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Robot | Yes | 67%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 66%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 65%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Vermont | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 7+ times | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 52%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Zillion / Zillionaire | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fight Oligarchy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hell 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Percent / Percenter 11+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Amazon | No | 67%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 63%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Netanyahu | No | 55%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big Business | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 47%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Coffee | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist | No | 45%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign Finance Reform | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordability | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 25%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26MAY25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP