Bernie Sanders: Rally, Mar 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his rally to Tax the Rich?
Markets
32 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Yes | 77%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 62%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 62%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Bezos | Yes | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Middle Class / Working Class | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax Cut / Tax Break | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Climate | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hochul | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 41%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Netanyahu | No | 71%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Revolution / Revolutionary | No | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | No | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bipartisan | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26MAR29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP