Will “Tariff” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on The Last Word in 5 of 12 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (42%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.

45%from settlement history only · n=12counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no yes no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=tariff

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Tariff

Probability
45% · n=12
Settled
5/12 (42%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted.

Josh Turekguest42:43In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Josh Turekguest43:36In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 6 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

6 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.

Josh Turekguest27:42In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Josh Turekguest28:53In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 12 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 22, 2026TariffKalshiYes2
Oct 21, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Oct 15, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Oct 6, 2026TariffKalshiYes6
Sep 21, 2026TariffKalshiNo0
Sep 16, 2026TariffKalshiYes1
Aug 27, 2026TariffKalshiYes3
Jun 9, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Apr 6, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Mar 5, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026TariffKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Tariff” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Tariff” was said on The Last Word in 5 of 12 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 24, 2026 (42%), most recently on Oct 22, 2026.
What is the probability “Tariff” is said on The Last Word next time?
45%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP