Will “2028 / Campaign” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “2028 / Campaign” was said on The Last Word in 5 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 23, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
2028 / Campaign
- Probability
- 53% · n=8
- Settled
- 5/8 (62%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 17 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 11 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “2028 / Campaign” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “2028 / Campaign” was said on The Last Word in 5 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 23, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “2028 / Campaign” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘2028 / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/2028-or-campaign (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP