Will “Oil / Gas / Diesel” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Oil / Gas / Diesel” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Oil / Gas / Diesel
- Probability
- 58% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 12 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 7 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 10 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Diesel |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Oil / Gas / Diesel | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Oil / Gas / Diesel” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Oil / Gas / Diesel” was said on The Last Word in 3 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Oil / Gas / Diesel” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Oil / Gas / Diesel’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/diesel-or-gas-or-oil (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=diesel%20%2F%20gas%20%2F%20oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP