ABC World News Tonight, October 12, 2026
On the Oct 12, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 11 of the 17 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 68%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Ilhan / Omar | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 33%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 48%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hurricane / Isaias | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Pope Leo | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flood / Flooding | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lincoln / Navy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protester | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paris | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SpaceX / NASA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| North Korea / North Korean | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
3 matches for “Ilhan / Omar”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the Justice Department sending federal agents into the home of Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who is up for re-election, a longtime target of President Trump.
…the Justice Department sending federal agents into the home of Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar who is up for reelection, a longtime target of President Trump.…
Where the listed words were said
…Tom Sufi Burridge at the Vatican tonight. Tom, thank you. Tonight, President Trump is facing backlash from Republicans and Democrats over his controversial deal to…
…in 1995. She became a citizen in 2000 at age 17. Tonight, Omar defiant, calling this political intimidation and an attempt to target political enemies…
…a passenger on a roller coaster. That news coming in now. The ICE arrest under intense scrutiny tonight. Federal agents pulling a man from his…
…defending his new deal with Vladimir Putin to suspend sanctions and buy Russian diesel, with diesel prices hitting record highs since Trump launched his war…
…hear what they say. Tonight, we fly over the destruction, the deadly hurricane slamming into the Gulf, rooftops torn away, apartment buildings ripped open. Tonight,…
Meantime, the war in Iran and now the escalating violence in the Middle East. Iran-backed Houthi rebels hitting a packed airport terminal in Saudi Arabia…
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy calls the agreement, quote, weak. It gives Putin money and he spends money only on this war. Kill us. Kill our children.…
Yeah, David, this was a terrifying attack on a major airport in Saudi. You could see the moment a missile slams into a packed airport…
Thank you. Tonight, we have learned that Pope Leo will undergo surgery tomorrow after a nodule was found on his lung. Let's get right to…
Miguel Para-Hernandez, an undocumented immigrant from Mexico living and working in the U.S. for 30 years, has a broken leg. He still has multiple surgeries…
…by those south swells from the tropical storm, Rachel, we've got coastal flood alerts up still from San Diego and Capistrano Beach all the way…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-10-12:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-10-12:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP