What is the probability “Lincoln / Navy” is said on World News Tonight next time?

43%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Lincoln / Navy” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Lincoln / Navy” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Lincoln / Navy” was said on World News Tonight in 2 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 24, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.

43%from settlement history only · n=4counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 21:05 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Lincoln / Navy

Probability: 43% · n=4
Settled: 2/4 (50%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 19, 2026 · Oct 19, 2026 · 15:21In transcript

…Ramos. Tonight, the Air Force identifying the airmen who died following this horrific fall during a pregame salute to service at a Navy football game.