What is the probability “Hurricane / Isaias” is said on World News Tonight next time?

52%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Hurricane / Isaias” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Hurricane / Isaias” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, “Hurricane / Isaias” was said on World News Tonight in 3 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 7, 2026 (75%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2. 1 later episode without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.

52%from settlement history only · n=4counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 06:11 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Hurricane / Isaias

Probability: 52% · n=4
Settled: 3/4 (75%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 23, 2026 · Oct 23, 2026 · 3:51In transcript

HURRICANE.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 21, 2026 · Oct 21, 2026 · 18:48In transcript

…been a long, challenging road to get here. Just two years ago, Hurricane Milton devastated Tampa Bay. The roof of Tropicana Field Baseball Stadium was…