What is the probability “SpaceX / NASA” is said on World News Tonight next time?

36%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “SpaceX / NASA” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “SpaceX / NASA” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 26, 2026, “SpaceX / NASA” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2026 (25%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 2.

36%from settlement history only · n=4counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 26, 2026, 02:32 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

SpaceX / NASA

Probability: 36% · n=4
Settled: 1/4 (25%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 16, 2026 · Oct 16, 2026 · 22:47In transcript

…pressure air-powered rocket thrusters that Musk says were built in partnership with SpaceX. It can basically fly like a rocket and it could do rolls,…

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 13, 2026 · Oct 13, 2026 · 23:30In transcript

…was the spectacular view over Florida in the pre-dawn sky this morning. NASA sharing these images during a SpaceX launch from Cape Canaveral to the…