What is the probability “Protester” is said on World News Tonight next time?

42%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “Protester” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “Protester” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Protester” was said on World News Tonight in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.

42%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 20:48 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

Protester

Probability: 42% · n=2
Settled: 1/2 (50%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 19, 2026 · Oct 19, 2026 · 1:55In transcript

…stores looted buildings burned and thousands arrested. Tonight the curfews now in place at this hour, protesters demonstrating over cuts and affordability in that country.