Face the Nation (CBS), October 4, 2026
On the Oct 4, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 8 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 7 | 17 | ✓ | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 5 | 6 | ✓ | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 4 | 17 | ✓ | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Russia | Yes | 3 | 6 | ✓ | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Europe / European | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 0 | 13 | ✓ | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Venezuelan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 7 | ✓ | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stockpile | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
19 matches for “War”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Similar stories with diesel. Diesel's mostly been impacted by the Russia- Ukraine war and also by China's decision not to export diesel or gasoline into…
…evaluate the trade-offs. He has worked ceaselessly to try to end this war. Not only would end – would ending this war end the killing…
…president. So – and – and there is constant, constant dialogues with both sides in that to try to bring that war to an end.
…make up to about $160,000 a year. That's some relief. Ending this war in Iran that he started without a – any kind of a…
… got us into another war with – without – without a plan and without explaining – explaining to the American people, what are we…
Where the listed words were said
Absolutely. Diesel prices have been going down. Gasoline prices have been going down. I expect that to continue.
…the world's greatest terrorist regime – regime, cannot and will not have nuclear weapons. So, of course, we're looking at every avenue to achieve that…
…have just kicked the can down the road and delivered a nuclear-armed Iran to the next president. You've got to respect that. That's an incredible…
Of course we're trying to have great relations with China and move that ball forward. I think things are going reasonably well there. But then…
It's a big deal. It's a big deal. Europe has very large diesel stores. They – you know, they don't refine enough diesel to supply…
Well, because we've got increasing supplies coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, and they've continued to rise over the last months, over the last…
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