Will “Democrat” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Democrat” was said on Face the Nation in 6 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (86%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Democrat
- Probability
- 48% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 11 by speakers the rule does not count.
…that Gavin Newsom forced the closure of, and, frankly, 15 years of Democrat policies that have been energy subtraction, trying to close coal plants, close…
…News Battleground Tracker poll finds that, if the election were held today, Democrats have a lead in that battle for control of the House. It…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…even more than oil prices. And this is – for 17 years, Democrat policies have been attack hydrocarbons, get as many refineries and coal plants…
…chair of the GOP midterm convention, businessman and Sunoco chairman Ray Washburne. Democrats plan to counter that convention to make their case. But what do…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 4 by speakers the rule does not count.
…think Clayton should be the new DNI. President Trump was told that Democrats were not going to support FISA reauthorization, and he got mad and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Democrat |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Democrat | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “Democrat” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Democrat” was said on Face the Nation in 6 of 7 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 19, 2026 (86%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability “Democrat” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP