Will “Iran / Iranian” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on Face the Nation in 3 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 51% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 13 by speakers the rule does not count.
Look, the president has – has taken a strong stand that Iran, the world's greatest terrorist regime – regime, cannot and will not have nuclear…
…have just kicked the can down the road and delivered a nuclear-armed Iran to the next president. You've got to respect that. That's an incredible…
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 8 by speakers the rule does not count.
…in the region right now is to stop the export of any Iranian crude or crude-related products, natural gas, whatever. We are strangling their economy…
…we've been involved. That's pretty tremendous. Alaska has been sanctioned more than Iran by Democratic politicians. We've got to unleash Alaska, and that's happening. The…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How often is “Iran / Iranian” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Iran / Iranian” was said on Face the Nation in 3 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability “Iran / Iranian” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP