Will “Nuclear” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said on Face the Nation in 6 of 10 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 23, 2026 (60%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Nuclear
- Probability
- 41% · n=10
- Settled
- 6/10 (60%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 1 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the world's greatest terrorist regime – regime, cannot and will not have nuclear weapons. So, of course, we're looking at every avenue to achieve that…
…would have just kicked the can down the road and delivered a nuclear-armed Iran to the next president. You've got to respect that. That's an…
Counts: named speaker only
15 counted; 6 by speakers the rule does not count.
…through the Straits of Hormuz, and we will have an end to the Iranian nuclear program. The end point, we know. The route, we don't.
…five weeks to achieve. Those are achieved. The ending of the Iranian nuclear program is a different matter. And that's what still needs to be…
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Nuclear |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 10, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 15 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
Questions
- How often is “Nuclear” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Nuclear” was said on Face the Nation in 6 of 10 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 23, 2026 (60%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability “Nuclear” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP