Will “Hormuz” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hormuz” was said on Face the Nation in 5 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Hormuz
- Probability
- 53% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Well, because we've got increasing supplies coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, and they've continued to rise over the last months, over the last…
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…slowly failing for them. Our exports of oil through the Strait of Hormuz are at the highest they've been since the conflict started, but they're…
…mean, to that point, Secretary Bessent said something like the Strait of Hormuz will be irrelevant in two years. It takes time to build pipelines…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force. The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz.…
…in the Mideast. And if Iran contests control of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States, we will obliterate them. So, to all the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Hormuz” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Hormuz” was said on Face the Nation in 5 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 9, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 4, 2026.
- What is the probability “Hormuz” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP