Will “Election” be said on Face the Nation next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said on Face the Nation in 3 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 2, 2026 (38%), most recently on Sep 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1 of them.

34%from settlement history only · n=8counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=election

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Face the Nation

Election

Probability
34% · n=8
Settled
3/8 (38%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 1 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Chris Wright say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will John Kennedy say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will Chris Wright say during Face the Nation? · said 4 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

4 counted; 13 by speakers the rule does not count.

Chris WrightguestIn transcript

There will be elections, of course. Those are coming. But this is a win-win deal.

Chris WrightguestIn transcript

…going on right now between the former leaders of the Parliament, the election that was the last sort of fair election in 2015. The opposition…

Every match in the transcript

What will Richard Blumenthal say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will Tom Homan say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Jared Isaacman say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Lindsey Graham say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will Chris Wright say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during Face the Nation? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 4, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Sep 27, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Sep 6, 2026ElectionKalshiYes4
Aug 30, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jul 19, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Jun 21, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Feb 16, 2026ElectionKalshiYes1
Feb 2, 2026ElectionKalshiYes4

Questions

How often is “Election” said on Face the Nation?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Election” was said on Face the Nation in 3 of 8 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 2, 2026 (38%), most recently on Sep 6, 2026.
What is the probability “Election” is said on Face the Nation next time?
34%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/election (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP