Vlad Tenev: HOOD Summit '26 Keynote, Sep 29, 2026
At the keynote on Sep 29, 2026, Vlad Tenev said 3 of the 17 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 13 of 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 3 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 17- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social | Yes | 8 | 11 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Option / Options | Yes | 3 | 17 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Perp / Perpetual | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 4 | 5 | ✗ | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Futures | No | 3 | 5 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tokenized / Tokenization | No | 1 | 2 | ✗ | 10%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 1 | 5 | ✗ | 9%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Active Trader / Active Trading | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold 3+ times | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NFL / Football | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SpaceX | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ventures Fund | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Credit Card | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SIG / Susquehanna | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kalshi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 11%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Blockchain | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 7%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · Robinhood (YouTube) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
5 matches for “Futures”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…So since Grace and I were here two years ago launching traditional futures, how many of you were in attendance two years ago? when we…
…asset. Secondly, in Tradfi, um, as many of you know who use futures, it can be costly to continue to roll and you have exposure…
Where the listed words were said
Abashek, please hurry. Anna, how soon can you activate Robin Hood social?
More than a third increase in your options trading hours. Just one more reason why you'd be at a disadvantage trading anywhere other than Robin…
…elsewhere, now's your time. For those of you who haven't heard of PERPS, let me give you a quick download on on how they work…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/vlad-tenev:2026-09-29:keynote · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=vlad-tenev:2026-09-29:keynote · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP