The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Sep 21, 2026
On the Sep 21, 2026 episode of The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell, 7 of the 17 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
17 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 3 | 8 | ✓ | 39%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 23%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare / Health Care | Yes | 1 | 5 | ✓ | 53%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 44%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billion / Trillion | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 1 | 12 | ✓ | 31%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | No | 0 | 10 | ✓ | 53%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 0 | 77 | ✓ | 44%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hegseth | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Missile / Munition | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
1 match for “Nuclear”; counts and timings only, no caption text.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-last-word:2026-09-21:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-last-word:2026-09-21:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP