Will “Ceasefire” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was not said on The Last Word in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 34% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Ceasefire” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was not said on The Last Word in any of the 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 14, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ceasefire” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP