White House press briefing, Feb 5, 2025
Polymarket What will Karoline Leavitt say during next White House press briefing?
Markets
22 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEI/Diversity Equity and Inclusion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE/Department of Governmental Efficiency | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon/Musk | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Afternoon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President 50+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President 75+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DeepSeek | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| President 100+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| RFK/Robert/Kennedy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taiwan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariffs 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tulsi/Gabbard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-next-white-house-press-briefing-jan-31 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP