White House press briefing, Mar 31, 2025
Kalshi What will Karoline Leavitt say during her next press briefing?
Markets
25 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: role: press secretary Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cabinet | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homeland Security / DHS | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 70%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Classified | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Goldberg | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hegseth | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Houthi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Signal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 49%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Automobile / Automotive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Baseball | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Car | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egypt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Health and Human Services / HHS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hoax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mexico | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tufts | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Columbia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSECPRESSMENTION-25JUN30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP