Donald Trump: Keynote, Oct 13, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Gaza Summit in Egypt?
Markets
22 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 61%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 54%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 51%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crown | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hostage 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Phase Two | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reconstruction | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wealthy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Steve / Jared | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Peace 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Erdogan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Smart / High IQ | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bibi | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel / Peace prize | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| 8 Wars | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jew / Muslim 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Riviera / Resort | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace through Strength | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 36%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-gaza-summit-in-egypt · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP