Will Donald Trump say “Migrant Crime”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Migrant Crime” at any of the 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Migrant Crime
- Probability
- 37% · n=7
- Settled
- 0/7 (0%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | Migrant Crime |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Migrant Crime | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Migrant Crime | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Migrant Crime | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Migrant Crime | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Migrant Crime | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Migrant Crime | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Migrant Crime”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Migrant Crime” at any of the 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Migrant Crime” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Migrant Crime’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/migrant-crime (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=migrant%20crime · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP