What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “NYPD / FDNY” next time?

58%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “NYPD / FDNY”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “NYPD / FDNY” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “NYPD / FDNY” at 6 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 25, 2026 (75%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

58%from settlement history only · n=8counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 6/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes yes yes
Streak: said the last 4 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 04:13 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

NYPD / FDNY

Probability: 58% · n=8
Settled: 6/8 (75%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Deputy Mayor FrancoisotherMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…network already operates across 46 neighborhood service areas, reaching communities spanning 29 NYPD precincts. But community safety is about more than lines on a map;…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…we heard Gov. Hochul, we heard Gov. Hochul last night defending the NYPD police officers against some of the comments by Bruce Blakeman, saying that…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

…It is a solemn privilege to be here alongside Commissioner Tisch and NYPD leadership as we remember 42 members of the New York City Police…

QuestionreporterMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

I have a question about NYPD enforcement. We asked them recently why their moving violations against car drivers have plummeted by 41 percent since 2021,…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Police Commissioner Jessica S. TischotherMayor Mamdani Holds Press Conference on Ice Shooting in Marble Hill · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

At 4:04 p.m., the NYPD received two 911 calls reporting a person shot and shots fired in the vicinity of 2 Marble Hill Avenue. At…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.