Will Raphael Warnock say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Raphael Warnock did not say “Iran” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Raphael Warnock
Iran
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Iran |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Raphael Warnock say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Raphael Warnock did not say “Iran” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Raphael Warnock says “Iran” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Raphael Warnock: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/raphael-warnock/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=raphael-warnock&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=raphael-warnock&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP