Will Raphael Warnock say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Raphael Warnock did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Raphael Warnock
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 38% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Raphael Warnock say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Raphael Warnock did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Raphael Warnock says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Raphael Warnock: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/raphael-warnock/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=raphael-warnock&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=raphael-warnock&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP