Will Raphael Warnock say “Trump”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Raphael Warnock said “Trump” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Raphael Warnock
Trump
- Probability
- 53% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Raphael Warnock say “Trump”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Raphael Warnock said “Trump” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jun 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Raphael Warnock says “Trump” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Raphael Warnock: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/raphael-warnock/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=raphael-warnock&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=raphael-warnock&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP