Will Raphael Warnock say “Election”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Raphael Warnock said “Election” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 7, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

53%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=raphael-warnock&word=election

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Raphael Warnock

Election

Probability
53% · n=6
Settled
2/6 (33%)
Last 2 episodes
said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not said

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What will Raphael Warnock say during All In with Chris Hayes? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · settled no

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What will Raphael Warnock say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · settled no

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What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Raphael Warnock say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · settled no

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What will Raphael Warnock say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 7, 2026ElectionKalshiNo0
Sep 23, 2026ElectionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 23, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jun 22, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Jun 15, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026ElectionKalshiNo–
Mar 18, 2026ElectionKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Raphael Warnock say “Election”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Raphael Warnock said “Election” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jun 15, 2026.
What is the probability Raphael Warnock says “Election” next time?
53%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Raphael Warnock: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/raphael-warnock/words/election (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=raphael-warnock&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=raphael-warnock&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP