Will Melania Trump say “White House”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Melania Trump said “White House” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Melania Trump
White House
- Probability
- 44% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Melania Trump yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | White House |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 15, 2026 | White House |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 15, 2026 | White House | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 21, 2026 | White House | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 30, 2026 | White House | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 29, 2026 | White House | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Melania Trump say “White House”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Melania Trump said “White House” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 29, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Melania Trump says “White House” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Melania Trump: ‘White House’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/melania-trump/words/white-house (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=melania-trump&word=white%20house · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=melania-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP