Melania Trump: Hearing, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her roundtable discussion?
Markets
14 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Education | Yes | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | Yes | 19%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Be Best | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| School | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Take it Down | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Grok / ChatGPT | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Peace | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Deepfake | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Donald | No | 26%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Barron | No | 22%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26APR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP