Melania Trump: Remarks, Sep 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her NC remarks?
Polymarket What will Melania say during remarks in North Carolina?
Markets
17 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | Yes | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| White House | Yes | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hurricane | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| North Carolina / Ashe County | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Be Best | Yes | 29%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Scholarship | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Peace / Peaceful | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Husband | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Child 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cool | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Foster 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donald | No | 21%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Donald / Trump | No | 16%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26SEP15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP