Melania Trump: Remarks, Aug 20, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her IndyCar announcement?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 38%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | Yes | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Education | Yes | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Fox | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IndyCar | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Race / Racing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scholarship | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| School | No | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Be Best | No | 32%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Donald | No | 21%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26AUG20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP