Melania Trump: Remarks, Apr 23, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during the First Lady’s Luncheon?
Markets
9 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Be Best | Yes | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| School | Yes | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | Yes | 24%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Take it Down | Yes | 23%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 19%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Donald | No | 27%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barron | No | 16%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26APR23C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP