Melania Trump: Remarks, Apr 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her remarks?
Polymarket What will Melania say during statement on April 9?
Markets
36 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Children / Minor | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Congress | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Husband / Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Donald | Yes | 19%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Empower / Empowering | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Security / Cybersecurity | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Be Best | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| School | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| April | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Child / Boy / Girl 6+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Danger / Dangerous | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Honor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Law / Order | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Love | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Movie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace / War 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Predator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Revenge | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soccer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Education | No | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | No | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deepfake | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Family | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| First Lady | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| UN / United Nations | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Challenge | No | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT | No | 17%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Star | No | 16%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26APR09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP