Melania Trump: Speech, Feb 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Melania say during her Smithsonian address?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inauguration | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Beauty / Beautiful | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fashion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Herve Pierre | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| History / Historic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Smithsonian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| White House | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Amazon | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Documentary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Donald | No | 25%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMELANIAMENTION-26FEB21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP