Will Kathy Hochul say “Rebate / Refund”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “Rebate / Refund” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 6, 2026 (29%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kathy Hochul
Rebate / Refund
- Probability
- 33% · n=7
- Settled
- 2/7 (29%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Kathy Hochul yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Rebate / Refund |  Kalshi | No |
| May 11, 2026 | Refund / Rebate | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Refund / Rebate | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Refund / Rebate | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Refund / Rebate | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Rebate / Refund | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Rebate / Refund | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kathy Hochul say “Rebate / Refund”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “Rebate / Refund” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 6, 2026 (29%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Kathy Hochul says “Rebate / Refund” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kathy Hochul: ‘Rebate / Refund’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kathy-hochul/words/rebate-or-refund (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kathy-hochul&word=rebate%20%2F%20refund · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kathy-hochul&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP