Kathy Hochul: Speech, Mar 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her next announcement?
Markets
14 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: anyone Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 69%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 64%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Billion | Yes | 63%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Buffalo | Yes | 57%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 49%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 47%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rebate / Refund | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26MAR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP