Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her Insurance Fraud announcement?
Markets
14 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 73%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 72%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | Yes | 62%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Refund / Rebate | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 41%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 40%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 67%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26APR21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP