Kathy Hochul: Remarks, Jul 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Kathy Hochul say during her announcement?
Markets
14 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | 62%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 60%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Buffalo | No | 48%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 45%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | 45%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 41%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World Cup | No | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 10%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHOCHULMENTION-26JUL02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP