Will Kathy Hochul say “Budget / Deficit”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “Budget / Deficit” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (83%), most recently on Apr 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kathy Hochul
Budget / Deficit
- Probability
- 64% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Kathy Hochul yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Budget / Deficit |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Budget / Deficit | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kathy Hochul say “Budget / Deficit”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Kathy Hochul said “Budget / Deficit” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (83%), most recently on Apr 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Kathy Hochul says “Budget / Deficit” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kathy Hochul: ‘Budget / Deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kathy-hochul/words/budget-or-deficit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kathy-hochul&word=budget%20%2F%20deficit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kathy-hochul&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP